Tory association members in Dover and Deal are gearing up to tonight select a candidate after Natalie Elphicke’s defection three weeks ago. The shortlist of three, confirmed today, includes Kent-based local campaigner and councillor Daniel Hamilton and Conservative Friends of Education founder Stephen James, alongside many-time candidate Jessica Stewart. The seat is just winnable, A few eyebrows have been raised by Tory sources over James Stephen’s abrupt resignation from his teaching job in the face of a standards investigation that was never followed up. Local Tories are keen for a scandal-averse candidate after the two Elphickes…

The UK’s ambassador to Mexico has been fired after shooting himself in the foot by pointing an assault rifle at an embassy employee, according to the Financial Times. The video of the British ambassador, Jon Benjamin, blew up after it was posted on X by an anonymous account apparently loaded with angry embassy staffers fed up with their mistreatment. The video was seen by the Foreign Office, which ultimately lead to Benjamin’s career going up in smoke… 

The video shows a gun-wielding Benjamin aiming the rifle to his staff member. “In a context of daily killings in Mexico by drug dealers, he dares to joke,” the anonymous account said alongside it. Laughing in the face of danger…

The current director of the Resolution Foundation, Torsten Bell, has been selected as Labour candidate for Swansea West this afternoon. He was told that Starmer’s team were desperate to have him. Co-conspirators may remember Bell, Labour’s Director of Policy under Ed Miliband, touring the news studios applauding the Chancellor for breaking the Tory manifesto promise not to hike NI contributions. Maybe he can serve as Labour minister for breaking tax pledges in a new government…

Bell’s Resolution Foundation released a landmark report in December called “A New Economic Strategy for Britain“. Its recommendations are:

• Make everyone pay inheritance tax by scrapping the nil-rate band.
• Raise Capital Gains Tax on shares to 37% and real estate to 53%
• Charge Capital Gains Tax on death and when moving out of UK.
• Slashing VAT registration threshold to £30,000.
• Scrap business and agricultural property reliefs.
• Hike basic rate of Dividend tax from 8.75% to 20%.
• Charge national insurance on rental income.
• Hike national insurance for higher self-employed incomes by 300% to 8%.
• Cut the £270,000 cap on tax-free pensions to £40,000.
• Introduce pay-per-mile road duty for electric vehicles.
• Scrap the 5p cut in fuel duty. Increase fuel duty by 2% every year.
• Hike vehicle excise duty for heavier cars.

At the same time Bell was arguing that ISAs should be abolished because they “work for the top“. His underlings at the Resolution Foundation have gone on to staff high-level positions at the Office for Budget Responsibility. Richard Hughes, the chairman of the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee, and Laura Gardiner, its Deputy Chief of Staff, are ex-Resolution. While Reeves pledges to hand the keys to the Treasury to the OBR, Labour MP Bell will have the ear of its top staff…

TORIES

• Sunak talks to farmers.
• New rules to crack down on anti-social behaviour.
• Labour’s Great British Energy won’t produce any energy.
• Labour’s biggest policy in this campaign has a rip-off stock image logo.
• Starmer is bullied by Rayner.
• Topline(s):
  • Labour’s main policy is a duff energy company – they have no plan.

LABOUR

• Diane Abbott is free to stand for Labour.
• Starmer speaks in Scotland to launch six steps for Scotland.
• Great British Energy state investment company is backed by Patrick Vallance.
• Labour and GBE will turn the page on the cost of living crisis and drive down energy bills.
• Topline(s):
  • Publicly-owned energy company will cut bills and address the climate crisis.

LIBDEMS

• Davey touring Blue Wall in Hertfordshire and south west London.
• LibDems would extend free school meals to all primary schoolchildren, paid for with a 4% share buyback tax.
• Topline(s):
  • LibDems are alternative to Labour for progressives.

REFORM

• Promoting Employer Immigration Tax announced yesterday.
• Local touring. Farage in Boston.
• Topline(s):
  • Reform can end Britain’s addiction to mass immigration.

GREENS

• Net Zero needs energy efficiency, which Labour has abandoned.
• By dropping £28 billion pledge for an £8 billion one Labour is betraying needs of climate crisis.
• Home insulation is the top priority.
• Topline(s):
  • Greens will ensure community ownership of energy sector for a faster Net Zero transition.

Cutting through:

• Trump verdict.

Latest polls:

YouGov: CON: 21 (+1) LAB: 46 (-1) RFM: 15 (+3) LDM: 8 (-1) GRN: 6 (-1) SNP: 2 (-1)

Two more Tory MPs have announced they will not stand for the Conservative Party at the election. Julian Knight has announced he will stand as an Independent in Solihull, while former Tory MP Aaron Bell has said he will not contest the Newcastle-under-Lyme seat. Both of them used ‘personal and family’ reasons as their excuse to withdraw from Team Blue…