With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

FULL-BLOWN ‘FREAKOUT’ — Chris Cadelago, Sally Goldenberg and Elena Schneider take the pulse of top Democratic strategists and elected officials and report that “a pervasive sense of fear has settled in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party over President JOE BIDEN’s reelection prospects, even among officeholders and strategists who had previously expressed confidence about the coming battle with DONALD TRUMP.”

A few choice quotes from the piece:

— A Democratic operative: “This isn’t, ‘Oh my God, MITT ROMNEY might become president.’ It’s ‘Oh my God, the democracy might end.’”

— “There’s still a path to win this, but they don’t look like a campaign that’s embarking on that path right now,” said PETE GIANGRECO, a longtime Democratic strategist who’s worked on multiple presidential campaigns. “If the frame of this race is, ‘What was better, the 3.5 years under Biden or four years under Trump,’ we lose that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.”

— “New York Democrats need to wake up,” said Manhattan Borough President MARK LEVINE. “The number of people in New York, including people of color that I come across who are saying positive things about Trump, is alarming.”

Click through for a lot more, including the details on the list kept by a Democratic adviser to major donors of all the reasons Biden could lose. Why? Because it’s “much easier to show them, so while they read it, I can pour a drink.”

THE END IS NEAR — Closing arguments begin this morning in Trump’s Manhattan hush money case and could continue into tomorrow. Following the summation of the case, Justice JUAN MERCHAN will then deliver the heavily-litigated instructions to the jury. We could have a decision by the end of the week.

Here’s what our experts see as the big factors shaping the final stretch:

The gag order … James Romoser reminds us that even though the trial is almost over, Trump could still be jailed for violating Merchan’s gag order: “In recent days, Trump appears to have twice violated the gag by publicly assailing prosecutor MATTHEW COLANGELO. And on Monday evening, he again arguably violated it by posting on Truth Social about a witness in the case. Early in the trial, prosecutors had diligently notified Merchan about every potential violation. Now, it seems they just want to get the case to a verdict. But as Ben Feuerherd reported over the weekend, if Trump is convicted, his continued defiance of the gag could be a reason for the judge to enhance his sentence.”

Framing the closing arguments …  Ankush Khardori tells us he’s watching two things. First, how will prosecutors set up MICHAEL COHEN’s importance to their case and the substance of his testimony? They’ll possibly argue to jurors that they don’t need to believe Cohen, just the documents and other circumstantial evidence. “The problem is,” Ankush notes, “that on some level, that argument is self-refuting, because no sane prosecutor would make Cohen a key witness in their case unless they thought they had to. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.”

Second, he’ll be watching if Trump’s lawyers repeat some of their earlier mistakes: Rather than laser-focus on Cohen’s credibility, they’ve “diluted their own defense in very Trumpian fashion — by implausibly contesting pretty much everything, including whether Trump had an extramarital sexual encounter with STORMY DANIELS, and by making relatively peripheral witnesses appear important through disproportionately long cross-examinations. It would be unwise to do that all over again in closing argument, but Trump himself may give them no choice.”

The all-important jury instructions … Josh Gerstein shares this learned take on what to watch for as Merchan prepares the jury for deliberations: “The jury instructions from Merchan seem potentially pivotal both to the verdicts the jury will reach and to the outcome of any appeal if Trump is convicted. The defense asked the judge to essentially import the mens rea required for a criminal campaign finance violation in federal court, while the prosecution is resisting that and favors a more open-ended instruction under which Trump could be convicted for a variety of different reasons that the jury won’t have to spell out.”

How it could end … Erica Orden explains all of the possible outcomes. Some are straightforward enough: conviction on all counts, acquittal on all counts and mixed bill. But she notes there’s some texture that could inform how the jury acts. For instance, while “prosecutors have offered three possible underlying crimes — violations of state or federal election law and a tax crime … the jurors do not all have to agree on what that separate crime was” — which could make securing convictions easier.

And then there’s the two wild-card outcomes: the much-discussed hung jury, which could in fact be a partially hung jury, reaching verdicts on some counts but not others, and this unlikely but possible scenario: “Merchan could take the decision out of the jury’s hands by issuing a ‘directed verdict’ for acquittal — in essence, a determination by the judge that no reasonable jury could find that the prosecution has proved its case.”

The iced-out jury … Given the fact that the jury has been sitting around waiting (and probably mulling the evidence individually) for a week now, Kyle Cheney tells us he wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick verdict. But he adds a caveat.

“One thing about high-profile trials: Juries almost always do something unexpected or parse evidence differently than conventional wisdom dictates. So don’t be surprised either if the outcome is mixed or the jury bought certain arguments from prosecutors but not others. We may only be able to guess at their analysis, unless any of them go public afterward.”

Trump and jail time … Should the jury convict, one question will tower over all the others: Could Trump go to jail, even for a short time? The Secret Service is preparing for the possibility, CBS News reminds us.

Betsy Woodruff Swan has a must-read piece examining the question posting later this morning. We’ll leave you with a taste of the analysis, from former Manhattan prosecutor DIANA FLORENCE, who ran against current DA ALVIN BRAGG and lost: “Given the entirety of the facts and circumstances that came out during the trial … [i]f I were the prosecutor, I would absolutely be asking for state prison.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WHERE TRUMP’S MIND IS AT — “WHY IS THE CORRUPT GOVERNMENT ALLOWED TO MAKE THE FINAL ARGUMENT IN THE CASE AGAINST ME? WHY CAN’T THE DEFENSE GO LAST? BIG ADVANTAGE, VERY UNFAIR. WITCH HUNT!” Trump wrote on Truth Social at 6:20 p.m. yesterday.

Josh Gerstein notes … “Trump was this many (77!) years old when he learned that prosecutors get the last word before a case goes to a jury. Reminds me of TOM WOLFE’s great line from Bonfire of the Vanities: ‘A liberal is a conservative who has been arrested.’”

MEANWHILE IN FLORIDA — “Trump Lawyers Assail Limited Gag Order Request in Documents Case,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer: “The latest battle over what the former president can say about a continuing legal case came after he falsely suggested that F.B.I. agents were authorized to shoot him when they searched Mar-a-Lago.”

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

What we’re watching … Whither HERSCHEL WALKER’s campaign cash? It’s not unheard of for unsuccessful big-money Senate campaigns to end with quite a bit of loot left in the kitty. Maine Democrat SARAH GIDEON had nearly $15 million left over after losing to GOP Sen. SUSAN COLLINS in 2020, and still has $4.3 million as of March 31. But Walker has his own $4.3 million sitting around after his loss to RAPHAEL WARNOCK, and Brittany Gibson reports that other Republicans are itching to use it to help elect Trump and others in Georgia amid a GOP cash crunch. Walker seems uninclined to help, though: Reached by phone, he denied there was anything there to spend.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will swear in COURTNEY O’DONNELL as U.S. permanent representative to UNESCO at 12:30 p.m., with second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending.

PLAYBOOK READS

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Israel’s attack on a tent camp in Rafah that reportedly killed 45 people, most of them civilians, drew heavy opprobrium across the world yesterday, and PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU owned up to having made a mistake: “Something unfortunately went tragically wrong,” he said, per Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Dan Williams. Israel also said the strike killed two Hamas officials.

For the U.S., the big question is whether this changes the Biden administration’s calculus of continuing to support its ally Israel in the same ways. The NSC said it was “heartbreaking” and that Israel needs to protect civilians, while noting the deaths of Hamas leaders, per CNN’s Kevin Liptak. Now, U.S. officials are in the process of determining whether Israel has crossed Biden’s “red line” in Rafah, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports.

If so, Biden could stop sending some offensive weapons to Israel — a major shift after officials tentatively hoped in recent weeks that Israel’s Rafah operation would meet their criteria for protecting civilians. Some Hill progressives are already calling for Biden to go there after this weekend’s disaster.

New this morning … Reuters: “Israeli tanks reached the centre of Rafah for the first time on Tuesday, witnesses said, three weeks into a ground operation in the southern Gaza city that has sparked global condemnation.”

Elsewhere in the region: “Iran’s Near Bomb-Grade Uranium Stock Grows Ahead of Elections,” by Bloomberg’s Jonathan Tirone: “International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors verified on Monday that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium rose 17% over the last three months.”

More top reads:

• Little rocket man: North Korea’s efforts to surveil the U.S. and South Korea hit a setback yesterday when a spy satellite’s rocket launch blew up, AP’s Hyung-Jin Kim, Mari Yamaguchi and Kim Tong-Hyung report.

• Star wars: “America Is Getting Ready for Space Warfare,” by WSJ’s Doug Cameron and Micah Maidenberg: “Defense companies are developing systems ranging from satellites that can chase other satellites in orbit to protecting ground stations that can beam signals to space. … Pentagon officials are also doing something unusual: talking more publicly about the weapons that hostile nations might use in space to engage in warfare.”

CONGRESS

KNOWING BYRON DONALDS — “Trump Elevates a Conservative ‘Warrior’ on Education,” by NYT’s Alexandra Berzon and Michael Bender: “The national attention is less remarkable to those in Florida, where the Donaldses have spent years building a name — and a business — for themselves in the state’s white-hot battles over schools. Mr. and Mrs. Donalds were early activists in an increasingly influential network seeking to transform traditional public education — in Florida and beyond.”

TRUMP CARDS

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN — If federal prosecutors had opted to bring the criminal classified documents case against Trump in D.C. instead of Florida, we could be looking at a very different legal landscape for the former president this year — and potentially a second trial before the election, CNN’s Tierney Sneed and Katelyn Polantz reports. Trump-appointed judge AILEEN CANNON has slowed the case way down, and his legal team’s delay attempts have been very successful (as elsewhere), potentially preventing him from ever facing trial if he wins reelection.

And newly unsealed opinions from federal judges JAMES ‘JEB’ BOASBERG and BERYL HOWELL show they were highly dubious of arguments advanced by the Trump team that Cannon is taking a long time to mull over. Their takes on “attorney-client privilege and grand jury secrecy” indicate “how much more quickly and harshly for Trump the case might have played out” had it not landed with the way less experienced Cannon.

WHAT’S $10 MILLION BETWEEN FRIENDS? — “Trump Just Sold His $10M Jet to One of His Megadonors,” by The Daily Beast’s Noah Kirsch and Roger Sollenberger: “[T]he buyer is a Republican megadonor [MEHRDAD MOAYEDI] who poured nearly $250,000 into a political committee tied to Trump’s 2020 campaign.”

ALL POLITICS

WHAT ABOUT BRIAN — “Brian Kemp will attend GOP convention as he builds up political operation,” by Natalie Allison: Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP is “not only helping a handful of candidates in tight [races] across the country, but cultivating influence ahead of his own possible future run” for president or Senate. COLLIN CUMMINGS is returning to Kemp’s fold as well.

STEPPING INTO THE SPOTLIGHT — “The Unlikely Women Fighting for Abortion Rights,” by NYT’s Kate Zernike: “The end of Roe has turned women who terminated pregnancies for medical reasons into a political force.”

2028 WATCH — “‘A Gift’: Abortion offers 2028 prospects a chance to hone their message,” by Rachel Bluth, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Shia Kapos: “The governors of California, Illinois and Michigan have traveled well beyond the six battleground states Biden needs to win in November, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ‘reproductive freedoms tour’ has rejuvenated her brand.”

PRIMARY COLORS — North Dakota’s GOP congressional primary is shaping up as a fight between the party’s establishment and MAGA wings, with JULIE FEDORCHAK and RICK BECKER staking out pretty different stances on foreign policy, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.

POLICY CORNER

BOOGIE WOOGIE WOOGIE — Biden’s historic climate investments include a major push to hasten the transformation of America’s cars to electric vehicles. Will it survive the next several years?

One obstacle to going electric even more quickly is of Biden’s own making: the decision to choke off cheaper Chinese-made EVs for protectionist and national security reasons. As NYT’s Jim Tankersley details, some environmentalists have criticized the decision, but the Biden administration sees the tradeoff as worth it.

Then there’s politics: As Republicans step up criticism of EVs and turn it into a partisan wedge issue, some conservative consumers who might otherwise be prime buyers are resisting making the switch, WSJ’s Mike Colias reports. Even when prices fall, ideology could be a sticking point.

But above all is the Trump factor. If he returns to the White House, will the green energy transition grind to a halt? He is talking tough about EVs — including some false claims — on the campaign trail and vowing to block Mexican imports. He could certainly slow it down, with serious climate consequences. But, but, but: Biden ultimately may have the momentum on his side, NYT’s Coral Davenport and Jack Ewing report. New electric vehicle sales are expected to cross the 10 percent threshold this year, and the market may be able to keep humming regardless of the next president.

And some provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act would have unlikely backing even if Trump is back in office, Kelsey Brugger reports this morning. Though they fought against the legislation, the conservative U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Petroleum Institute now support its big spending on clean energy, carbon capture and hydrogen tax credits. They’re planning to defend those pieces of the IRA against GOP roll-back efforts — “an example of the potential for the [Biden] administration’s sweeping, $1.6 trillion climate, energy and infrastructure agenda to reshape traditional power alliances in Washington.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

A TASTE OF THE FUTURE — “‘Just brutal’: Why America’s hottest city is seeing a surge in deaths,” by Ariel Wittenberg: “Phoenix officials are trying to reduce this year’s death count — but their fleeting plans hinge on temporary [federal] funding. … Strapped-for-cash municipalities are often left to fend for themselves during withering heat waves.”

STATE OF THE UNIONS — “The Delivery Business Shows Why Unions Are Struggling to Expand,” by NYT’s Peter Eavis: “The Teamsters union has made little headway in organizing workers at Amazon and FedEx despite wage and other gains it secured at UPS last year.”

MEGATREND — “Home insurance was once a ‘must.’ Now more homeowners are going without,” by WaPo’s Patrick Cooley: “Slammed by pricier policies and climate-driven natural disasters, more and more Americans are exposing themselves to risk.”

AILING AMERICA — “America’s child care shortage is pushing military families to a breaking point,” by NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece

PLAYBOOKERS

Donald Trump’s allies are watching Mark Robinson with some trepidation.

Joe Biden said the pain of Beau’s death is “still real, still raw.”

Ilhan Omar and Cori Bush (or their staffers) mixed up Memorial Day and Veterans Day.

MEDIA MOVE — Hank Butler is now an editorial producer for “Laura Coates Live” on CNN. He most recently was senior booking producer for “Morning in America” weekends on NewsNation.

TRANSITIONS — Vanessa Velasquez is joining Customs and Border Protection as a senior adviser in the Office of Public Affairs. She previously was a White House fellow for the secretary of the Navy. … Charlie Roth is rejoining Rep. Ryan Zinke’s (R-Mont.) office as comms assistant. She previously was press associate for the House Budget Committee.

WEDDING — Emily Wilkins, D.C. correspondent for CNBC, and John Sanders, VP at Blackstone, got married at Saint Peter’s Catholic Church with a reception at the National Press Club on May 11. The couple met at a friend's birthday party at The Big Hunt in January 2020. Pic ... Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Rudy Giuliani (8-0) … Jessica Anderson of Heritage Action … Natalie Yezbick of Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) office … Mark Greenbaum of Rep. Bill Pascrell’s (D-N.J.) office … POLITICO’s Alana Cunningham … Lauren Mandelker … The 19th’s Emily Ramshaw … Andy Stone of Meta … WaPo’s Pradnya (P.J.) Joshi … Lisa Wallenda Picard … Chris Downing … Uber’s Josh Gold … Julie Hershey Carr … Herald Group’s Colin Hensel … Edelman’s Chris Donahoe ... Robb Harleston … TSA’s Brian Kelly … Adelle Nazarian … former Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa), Scott Rigell (R-Va.) and Tom Petri (R-Wis.) … Christy Felling … Marty Kramer … Katharine Weymouth … Matt Orr of Rep. Russell Fry’s (R-S.C.) office

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.