With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

NEW NYT/SIENA POLLS — “Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden,” by NYT’s Nate Cohn: “The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, [DONALD] TRUMP’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the [JOE] BIDEN campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states. The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent.”

The toplines … Arizona: Trump 49%-42% (RV), 49%-43% (LV) … Georgia: Trump 49%-39% (RV), 50%-41% (LV) … Michigan: Trump 49%-42% (RV), Biden 47%-46% (LV) … Nevada: Trump 50%-38% (RV), 51%-38% (LV) … Pennsylvania: Trump 47%-44% (RV), 48%-45% (LV) … Wisconsin: Biden 47%-45% (RV), Trump 47%-46% (LV) … Full results

MONEY BOMB NO. 1 — The GOP issue advocacy group One Nation “is plowing $70 million more into hitting vulnerable Democrats in key Senate races … roughly double the group’s Senate investment last cycle,” Burgess Everett scoops. “The group is diving into Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada in a sweeping ad buy focused on the southern border and inflation, an effort branded as the ‘Stop the Insanity’ campaign.”

MONEY BOMB NO. 2 — Democratic super PAC American Bridge is dropping $25 million in abortion-related ads on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania over the next three weeks, WaPo’s Michael Scherer scoops. “The spots — delivered by television, radio, digital and mail through early June — are the first wave of a promised $140 million campaign to reelect President Biden."

IT’S SHOWTIME — MICHAEL COHEN, the witness who could decide whether Trump goes to jail or not, is expected to take the stand today in the Manhattan hush money case.

We checked in last night with his friend and former lawyer, LANNY DAVIS. “I spoke to him a few hours ago and he’s primed, he's ready,” Davis said.

He also told us a story to remind us that Cohen has faced this sort of pressure before: On the night before Cohen’s testimony to Congress in 2019, his lawyers conducted one last murder board to test the voluble witness’s ability to stay calm under harsh questioning.

“I took the lead,” Davis told Playbook. “I called him a fucking liar, and I tried everything I could to get under his skin.”

It worked. 

“He blew a gasket,” Davis said, “and almost walked out of the room. When we calmed him down, I said, ‘Congratulations, Michael, all the Republicans on the platform tomorrow will be high-fiving if you do that.’ And he smiled and he got my point.”

Cohen exploding in rage at Trump’s lawyers during cross-examination is just one of the many pitfalls prosecutors will need to avoid with their complicated and controversial client. We reached out to POLITICO colleagues and a few outside legal analysts watching the trial closely to break down what you should watch for this week.

How do prosecutors handle Cohen’s criminal record?

ERICA ORDEN, POLITICO: “Cohen pleaded guilty to multiple felonies, some of them related to payments at issue in this trial, and Trump’s defense rests largely in his lawyers’ ability to get jurors to distrust Cohen. While Trump’s lawyers are sure to dissect every detail of Cohen’s criminal history, I’m interested in how prosecutors will try to get out ahead of these expected parts of the cross-examination and how far they will go to try to take the sting out of Cohen’s past before Trump’s lawyers get their turn with him.”

Can Cohen tie Trump more directly than we’ve seen so far to the alleged crimes?

ANKUSH KHARDORI, POLITICO: “Even if we assume that prosecutors have established every other element of the offenses charged against Trump, they still must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump participated in falsifying his company’s business records with the intent to commit, aid or conceal ‘another crime.’ … I’ll be looking to see whether and to what extent Cohen can provide evidence — perhaps based on purported conversations between him and Trump — that Trump actually knew why the payments to STORMY DANIELS were internally recorded in the way that they were, and that he participated with the intention — not merely the effect — of concealing another crime.”

JEFFREY TOOBIN, author, legal analyst and former federal prosecutor: “For all the drama in the case, it's still a false business records case. And I'll be watching to see what Cohen says about Trump's knowledge, or lack thereof, about how the business records of the reimbursements to him were prepared.

How does the defense try to destroy Cohen in cross examination?

ARI MELBER, MSNBC: “Prosecutors see Michael Cohen as the ‘closer’ of this case. He is an insider with an eyewitness view of Trump’s conduct and secret planning. … On the other hand, the defense has more opportunities to raise reasonable doubt through this witness than probably any other — he has a criminal record, his story has changed, and he is the only witness who has been admonished by the judge for out-of-court statements. On top of that, he is a lawyer who turned on his own client — there may be very good reasons for that, but it is a transition that effective defense lawyers can use to raise questions of credibility and motive in jurors’ minds.”

KHARDORI: “This is going to be the most important cross-examination of someone’s life. … So far as I can tell, Cohen is routinely dishonest, he lacks impulse control, and he isn’t terribly bright. According to our poll results, half of the country thinks that he is dishonest. The government’s key witnesses in the course of this trial have been calling him self-aggrandizing, self-interested and dishonest. A good lawyer on a good day could demolish him. He’s going to be fighting an uphill battle to persuade twelve people — unanimously — to trust him.”

TIM PARLATORE, former Trump attorney: “To me, the biggest theme is his initial denials, even when it was in his best interest to cooperate right after the raid. He didn’t change his tune until after Trump declined to pardon him. Then, I’d dig into the facts that caused the U.S. attorney to reject him as a cooperator. (Hint, it’s pardon related.) Then examine whether [DA ALVIN BRAGG] asked him about the same issue (they probably didn’t, but there’s no answer here that makes Bragg look good).”

Does Cohen offer any damning evidence that isn’t backed up?

JAMES ROMOSER, POLITICO: “The main thing I’m looking for is how much Cohen will say that isn’t corroborated by some other witness or evidence. Prosecutors surely would like to be able to tell the jury, ‘Even if you don’t believe Cohen, everything [or most everything] he said is independently backed up by X, Y and Z.’ But there may be things that only Cohen, and nobody else, can speak to. The question is how large that universe is.”

Forget about the evidence, what about the Shakespearean drama?

KYLE CHENEY, POLITICO: “I’ll be watching the intense psychodrama between [Cohen and Trump], who probably haven’t looked each other in the eye in years. They’re both brash, bombastic and inextricably bound together in the New York tabloid scene and presidential history. … Neither man has a penchant for honesty, and Trump’s defense rests almost entirely on convincing jurors that Cohen is such a hopeless criminal liar that his sworn testimony is worthless. Whoever the jury believes — or disbelieves less — may determine the outcome of the trial.

“Trump’s lawyers have been assailing Cohen in front of the jury at almost every opportunity, ensuring that other witnesses who have a dim view of Cohen express their disdain for him in open court. I’m curious how early and often prosecutors try to turn that dynamic back on Trump: If Cohen is such an obviously unsavory criminal, why did Trump keep him in his inner circle for so long and turn to him for his most sensitive tasks?”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

CATCH UP FAST — The POLITICO video crew wraps up Week 4 of the Trump trial with a bobblehead-powered recap of, what else, Stormy Daniels’ unusually intimate testimony.

THAT OTHER BIG TRIAL — “Bob Menendez corruption trial, round two: Prosecutors have ‘compelling’ narrative,” by Matt Friedman and Ry Rivard: “This next trial, set to play out beginning Monday, promises to be consistently dramatic — and gives prosecutors who’ve eyed [Sen. BOB] MENENDEZ for at least two decades perhaps their best chance to convince a jury of his alleged corruption. … But federal prosecutors have to try their case in the shadow of rulings that [make] public corruption cases harder to win.” Cheat sheet to who’s who from our New Jersey colleagues

NYT’s Tracey Tully and Benjamin Weiser add: “[U]nlike the first, which ended in a hung jury, there is a volatile and surprising new element: charges against Mr. Menendez’s wife.”

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Presidential and congressional primaries held in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. Biden delivers remarks at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies annual gala. Trump attends NYC fundraiser. … Wednesday: April CPI inflation numbers released. Biden and congressional leaders address annual police memorial service at the Capitol. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA appears before House Education and Workforce. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO appears before Senate Appropriations. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN appears before House Energy and Commerce. ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. hosts Nashville comedy show with ROB SCHNEIDER, RUSSELL BRAND & Co. … Thursday: Biden meets with plaintiffs from Brown v. Board of Education at the White House. … Friday: Biden delivers remarks at the National Museum of African American History and Culture. … Saturday: Biden travels to Atlanta for a fundraiser. … Sunday: Biden delivers the commencement address at Morehouse College before traveling to Detroit for the annual NAACP Freedom Fund dinner.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

3 things to watch …

1. The House has one must-pass bill to deal with this week: the Senate-passed FAA reauthorization, which will be handled under suspension of the rules. Republican leaders are devoting the rest of the calendar to law-enforcement-themed measures in honor of National Police Week, with one big exception: the Israel Security Assistance Support Act, which would make it illegal to “withhold, halt, reverse, or cancel the delivery of defense articles or defense services from the United States to Israel.” Keep an eye on this one.
   
2. It’s mid-May, and it’s time to start tuning into fiscal 2025 appropriations season. Yes, it hasn’t even been two months since Congress finished passing 2024’s bills, and you can absolutely guarantee there will be a continuing resolution (or four) in our future, but the process is rolling along. The House could issue topline spending levels as soon as this week, and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is promising “listening sessions” to try and keep the train on the track. The upshot: No doubt TOM COLE and PATTY MURRAY will be able to write their bills this summer, but don’t hold your breath waiting for floor action.
   
3. GOP ad spenders continue to shower money on border-themed ads (see above) but Senate Democrats don’t seem especially eager to change the subject. In fact, Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has spent recent days marking the three-month anniversary of the death of a bipartisan border security deal at Trump’s hands and renewing the case that the GOP is not actually interested in solving the problem: “They think chaos will help them win,” he said on the floor last week. We’ll see if the messaging campaign extends, as Axios reported it might, to a revote on the nixed agreement.

At the White House

Biden will return to the White House from Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. At 5 p.m., he and VP KAMALA HARRIS will speak at a Rose Garden reception for Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month, with second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending.

Harris will also have a moderated conversation at 11 a.m. at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies Legislative Leadership Summit in D.C. In the evening, she’ll travel to NYC.

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

ALMOST HEAVEN — West Virginia’s dominant Republicans take to the polls tomorrow for crucial primaries. And despite some fiercely contested races, just about all the candidates agree on one thing: refusing to acknowledge the reality that Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, AP’s Leah Willingham and John Raby report from Charleston. Election denialism has become a partisan bright line for Republicans in the state and elsewhere: Key figures either allege, incorrectly, that the election was stolen (like Secretary of State MAC WARNER and DERRICK EVANS) or sidestep the question (like MOORE CAPITO, CHRIS MILLER and AG PATRICK MORRISEY).

In the highest-profile race, Gov. JIM JUSTICE is expected to beat Rep. ALEX MOONEY and then cruise to the GOP’s easiest Senate flip of the cycle. But he’s facing a growing series of financial and legal woes — and as NYT’s Campbell Robertson and Maureen Farrell report, “this time, there may be too many, some suspect, for Mr. Justice, 73, and his family to fend them all off.” The main problem is a series of major debts the ultra-wealthy businessman is accused of accruing and not paying. One bank has started to collect, and even prominent Justice properties like the Greenbrier resort are potentially on the table. Justice says he’s not involved in day-to-day operations and it will all work out in the end.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The campaign to take down House Freedom Caucus Chair BOB GOOD (R-Va.) is getting some important backup today, as the Republican Main Street Partnership’s super PAC kicks off a nearly half-a-million-dollar ad buy for primary challenger JOHN McGUIRE. The spots from Defending Main Street will run on TV and radio, as Good faces an unusually intense intra-party challenge in the wake of his vote to depose KEVIN McCARTHY as speaker. Watch the pro-McGuire ad

More top reads:

• Beyond West Virginia: “In top races, Republicans try to stay quiet on Trump’s false 2020 claims,” by WaPo’s Patrick Marley in Waukesha, Wisconsin: “Unlike in 2022, many GOP candidates running in tight races are choosing to steer away from one of the former president’s favorite talking points.”

• Primary colors: “The Most Endangered Democrat in America,” by N.Y. Mag’s Ross Barkan: “[GEORGE] LATIMER refuses to critique the Israeli military strategy in Gaza or declare he would, as a congressman, ask the U.S. government to condition military aid to Israel, as Biden has done. … I ask [Rep. JAMAAL] BOWMAN if Israel should always have a Jewish majority. Strikingly, unlike a vast majority of American politicians, he doesn’t answer immediately in the affirmative.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

IT’S INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK SOMEWHERE — Biden Cabinet secretaries and surrogates will fan out across the country this week to promote the administration’s investments in infrastructure. It’s a long-standing “Infrastructure Week” tradition in Washington that has gained new political purchase since Trump tried (and failed) to implement an infrastructure plan and Biden passed a massive bill. But as Chris Marquette writes this morning, the stakes are particularly high because Biden’s major investments have yet to translate to much credit in the polls. From Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN to acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU and California to North Carolina, the events this week will tout $454 billion in announced funding.

But just $125 billion of that total has actually been spent so far, and the delay in seeing results could account for some of Biden’s political problems. Even seeing them might be enough: In Phoenix, the L.A. Times’ Benjamin Oreskes finds that Biden’s investments have helped turbocharge a wave of economic development. But many residents don’t tie the growth to Biden; they still think Trump’s economy was better; and they’re more beset by inflation and rent concerns.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

HAPPENING TODAY — “Wisconsin Supreme Court to revisit ruling that banned most ballot drop boxes,” by NBC’s Adam Edelman: “Oral arguments kick off Monday in a case with major ramifications for how the 2024 election will be run in the battleground state.”

SCHOOL’S OUT FOR SUMMER — “Pro-Palestinian protests dwindle to tiny numbers and subtle defiant acts at US college graduations,” by AP’s Moriah Balingit: “This weekend’s commencement events remained largely peaceful.”

A new poll out this morning from U.S. News & World Report and Generation Lab finds that two-thirds of students attending the mag’s Top 25 colleges say antisemitism is a problem, and a plurality see pro-Palestinian protests as having a negative impact on campus, Lauren Camera reports.

CONGRESS

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — Sens. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) and ANGUS KING (I-Maine) are the same age as Biden. So why are their reelection bids provoking so less much consternation? In the Senate, where seniority and tradition still often rule the day, concerns about America’s political gerontocracy have not hindered these incumbents — nor the likes of nonagenarian CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa), who won reelection last cycle, Ursula Perano reports this morning.

Though health and age concerns have dogged some senators, like Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and the late DIANNE FEINSTEIN, Sanders and King could become some of the oldest senators ever by the end of their next terms if they win reelection as expected. Even Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) says they’re at the “top of their game.” As Ursula notes, “aging affects every person differently … Some octogenarians and even nonagenarians have thrived in the Senate, while others haven’t.”

POLICY CORNER

THE TAXMAN COMETH — “An IRS change cut child support for Native moms. Other families may be next,” by WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer Weil: “A standoff with Congress rooted in taxpayer privacy has prompted the IRS to cut off a form of child support for families in at least 10 Native American tribes, a scenario that could be replicated in all 50 states as soon as this fall, affecting hundreds of thousands more households.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

FROM 30,000 FEET — “Global Chips Battle Intensifies With $81 Billion Subsidy Surge,” by Bloomberg’s Mackenzie Hawkins, Ian King, Jillian Deutsch, Yoshiaki Nohara and Yuan Gao: “Chips spending by the US and its allies marks a new challenge to Beijing’s decades of industrial policy — albeit one that will take years to bear fruit.”

KREMLINOLOGY — “Russia’s Putin Replaces Defense Minister in Security Shake-Up,” by WSJ’s Ann M. Simmons and Georgi Kantchev: “In a decree published Sunday, [VLADIMIR] PUTIN nominated ANDREI BELOUSOV, a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics to replace [SERGEI] SHOIGU, who in turn was named as the new secretary of the Security Council, a post until now held by NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is trying to sell immigrant voters on abortion and freedom.

Samuel Alito finally found some criminal defendants he likes.

Franklin Graham isn’t scared to mix religion with politics.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on the pickleball courts at Congressional Country Club yesterday: Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Kathy “Coach” Kemper, Geo Saba, Kelsey Kemper Valentine and Saudi Ambassador Reema bint Bandar Al Saud.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kate Hunter is joining Axios as politics editor. She previously was White House/politics editor at Bloomberg.

— Rachel Pollock is joining Arnold Ventures as VP of external affairs. She previously was VP of ACT for NIH, and is an NIH, HHS and OMB alum.

MEDIA MOVE — Sam Brodey will be national political reporter at the Boston Globe. He previously was deputy political editor at The Daily Beast.

TRANSITIONS — Planned Parenthood Federation of America and Planned Parenthood Action Fund are adding Nora Walsh-DeVries as senior political director and Katie Rodihan as state advocacy comms director. Walsh-DeVries previously was chief of staff for Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.). Rodihan previously was comms director at Planned Parenthood Great Northwest, Hawai’i, Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky. … Kevin Dowling is now head and director of U.S. federal government affairs at 3M. He most recently was an SVP at Venn Strategies, and is a Lee Zeldin alum. … Ben Bain is joining the Niskanen Center as director of the State Capacity Initiative. He previously was director for future tech platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project. …

… Jane Terry is now director of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Office of Impaired Driving and Occupant Protection. She previously was VP of government affairs at the National Safety Council. … Toney Anaya is joining Shipt as VP of government affairs. He previously led DoorDash’s U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand government relations teams, and is a Coca-Cola alum. … Shane McCarthy and Bella Kerbers are joining the Glen Echo Group. McCarthy will be a senior associate and previously was a manager at Signal Group DC. Kerbers will be an associate.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Duncan McGaan, deputy director of federal affairs for the Commonwealth of Virginia, and Michelle Vencil, publicity coordinator at National Geographic, got married in Lawrence, New York. on Saturday. They met at Davidson College. Pic ... Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) (4-0) and Michael Cloud (R-Texas) … Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-U.S. Virgin Islands) … Stephen Colbert (6-0) … NBC’s Ken Dilanian … Amy Grappone of the McCain Institute … Amy Bos … Sarah Gunion … CNN’s Brian Fung … Dan Cox of AEI and the Survey Center on American Life … Shaila Manyam of Concordia … Charlyn Stanberry … Phil Musser of NextEra Energy Resources … Mike Lux … NYT’s Mark Mazzetti … VoteVets’ Jon Soltz … former FDA Commissioner David Kessler ... National Journal’s Jeff DuFour ... Tara Bradshaw … Erica Farage … former Ohio Gov. John Kasich … Austin Gage … former Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.) (6-0) … Matt Smith of Atlas Advocacy … Sydney Cox of Sen. Mike Braun’s (R-Ind.) office … Marcia Lee Kelly … Mark Titus Hoover

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